Preliminary sensitivity analysis for an ex-vessel LOCA without plasma shutdown for the EU DEMO WCLL blanket concept

In this early development phase of the DEMO design the uncertainty affecting many operational and design parameters can modify main outcomes of accident scenario aiming at studying the critical conditions for the vacuum vessel and the contiguous containment volumes. The aim of this paper is to perform a preliminary sensitivity analysis of an accident progression predicted by MELCOR code considering selected parameters as a figure of merit to predict possible code outcomes. The uncertainty band will be evaluated through sensitivity analyses programmed, collected and statistically manipulated through RAVEN software tool. MELCOR and RAVEN have been internally coupled through a new Python code interface developed by Sapienza University of Rome, to perform sensitivity and uncertainty quantification analyses during severe accident transient. The Beyond Design Basis Accident (BDBA) analysis of an ex-vessel loss of coolant accident (LOCA) for the water-cooled lithium lead (WCLL) blanket concept has been simulated with the fusion version of MELCOR 1.8.6 code. The postulated initiating event (PIE) is a double-ended break in the first wall (FW) cooling system distributor ring, with simultaneous failure of the plasma shutdown system. An in-vessel breach of the coolant system occurs because of FW failure, with consequent unmitigated plasma shutdown transient. Sensitivity analysis results have shown that the FW temperature at which plasma in-vessel breach occurs is strongly correlated with the mass of hydrogen produced. The same parameter has also an impact on the overall accident scenario, such as the trigger of VVPSS rupture disks and thus source term mobilization.